Our Current Misjudgment is Very Costly
The news is currently reporting a situation in Afghanistan in which misjudgment has caused many people to be placed in grave danger: those Afghans who helped us and are now, therefore, vulnerable to reprisals by the Taliban. There have been inadequate preparations for their removal to safe locations.
Causes of Misjudgment
One cause of misjudgment was simply having inadequate knowledge. Intelligence estimates for the timing of the Taliban's takeover varied depending on their source (some optimistic, some pessimistic). How could one decide which estimates were most valid?
Another cause of misjudgment could have resulted from having an opinion skewed by personal, or organizational, desires. How much did the military's "can do" attitude warp its judgment?
Yet another source of misjudgment stemmed from an organizational and individual denial to acknowledge the inefficiency of the bureaucratic process for clearing Afghans to receive visas and resettle elsewhere.
Do Any of These Apply to Us?
Are we sometimes vulnerable to misjudging situations in our individual lives due to any of these factors? Incomplete information, biases or denial? When you encounter a situation that you want help with, use my Complimentary Tool. In Step 3, you can wish for a new mental pathway that will be dedicated to helping you make the best decision.
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